The 30th Forum of Scenari Immobiliari, "The Future is Now", which took place in September 2022, has provided an outlook of what could be in store in both the Italian and European real estate markets in 2023. Almost all forecasts for the real estate sector have strong hopes of good recovery: in Europe, 2022 turnover has increased by about 10% in one year, while it has also been an excellent year also for the Italian market, which will close 2022 with a predicted turnover of 140 billion euros (+9.9%). This is the European and Italian real estate outlook 2023 according to Scenari Immobiliari.
Forecasts for the Italian real estate market 2023
We are currently observing positive forecasts for the Italian real estate market, although declining for 2023, with +6.5 per cent to 148 billion euros (2nd place among the top 5 European real estate markets).
Forecasts for the end of 2022 in the EMEA region are instead between 320 billion and 305 billion euros, a drop of between 10 and 15% compared to 2021, which closed with around 360 billion euros. Over the past 12 months (June 2021 to June 2022), the total investment volume in Europe reached a record 387.3 billion euros, 35% higher than in the period from 2020 to 2021.
Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari commented: "The market is going through a delicate phase, within an economic scenario that is facing a real storm - including war, inflation, post-pandemic and political crisis - which broke out in 2022 and will realistically continue in 2023. After 2 particularly good years, real estate companies are structured and have considerable financial capacity, the strength of demand is still robust because it is based on product innovation and not speculative, but external conditions are negative and are trying to make the market change direction. It is time for more difficult sailing, but every storm is bound to blow over".
European real estate market turnovers: outlook 2023
According to Scenari Immobiliari, the robustness of the real estate markets in the main European countries, compared to the future economic scenario, which is expected to decline and is still fraught with uncertainty, is confirmed by the forecasts on the turnovers of the 5 leading nations (including Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom).
In the average of the 5 largest countries, growth in 2022 is estimated at 12.1 per cent compared to 2021; if the average turnover generated at the end of 2022 is extended to the 28 EU countries, an increase over the previous year of 9.9 per cent is estimated. This would be an important contribution to the growth of global turnover in value terms comes from the positive price change recorded this year, to which the rise in inflation in recent months has evidently contributed.
House prices in Europe: forecast for 2023
In the residential sector, house prices in the 5 most industrialised countries are expected to increase by an average of 4.5% at the end of the year, while the estimate for the following year is set at +6.5% on average per year. On the residential real estate transactions front, Italy, after the exceptional performance of 2021, is expected to close 2022 with a slight drop in trade of 5.3%, settling at 710 thousand purchases and sales. For 2023, a further decline is expected to remain below 6 percentage points and around 670 thousand trades.