In 2019, the total for outstanding mortgages in Italy was the highest ever: it reached 332.418 billion euros. The study office of the Tecnocasa Group has analysed the data from the Bank of Italy.
The pace with which the amount grew in 2019, was in line with the average recorded for previous surveys: +2.7% on an annual basis (+1.09% on a quarterly basis). In light of the favourable market rates at which loans have been placed over the last three years, the stock is largely made up of fixed or variable rate loans with a cap, which presupposes less risk for both households and lending institutions. These details for 2019 are illustrated in the graph, showing the total for outstanding mortgages and the growth percentage:
What should we expect from mortgages in 2020?
It is clear that the health emergency due to the coronavirus and the consequent lockdown decreed by the government will have an impact on existing mortgages: as soon as the next survey is completed, there should be a stop in growth in the value of active mortgages in circulation in line with current levels. The most important impacts should be recorded from the second quarter of the year and should last at least until the end of the year. A scenario is therefore outlined that will lead to a decrease in the stock of outstanding mortgages in the short term.
Once back to normal, the lending policies of banks and lending institutions will have to be interpreted. Finally, it will be necessary to assess the confidence index of households with regard to their economic and financial expectations. However, confidence remains in the medium term due to the positive trend in interest rates, which will remain low for the considerable future.
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